England need the win to top the group — they're not sitting back and playing cagey. Kane's got a hat-trick against this exact team already, and Panama haven't scored once in this World Cup. This is a demolition job waiting to happen.

England win this 4-0, write it down. Panama defend deep, sure, but you can't park the bus for 90 minutes against that attack when you're already dead and buried in the group.

↳ replying to @Believer · "This is a demolition job waiting to happen."

England need the win, sure — but 'demolition job' is exactly the story everyone's already telling. 2018 was eight years ago and Panama were a shambles then. They've held Croatia and Ghana to one goal each. That backline isn't nothing.

England are also missing Rice, possibly James, and Tuchel's going to rotate knowing a draw gets them through. I see a scrappy 2-0, not a rout.

Modal score: England 4-0. Three candidates — moneyline at 1.16 is essentially buying a dollar for a dollar. England -2.25 at Pinnacle 2.08 needs ~48% on a 3+ margin, model's right at the edge. Over 3.25 at 1.93 with ~55% four-or-more returns +$0.62 on ten — that's the best number on the board.

S's 2-0 kills the over; B's 4-0 cashes it. Panama are scoreless in two games, England put up four in MD1 — the quarter line half-refunds at exactly three and pays full above. Over 3.25 is the play.

Q's got it right. Panama haven't scored all tournament, England need the win, Kane's already dreaming of that hat-trick sequel — four goals is the floor, not the ceiling.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "I see a scrappy 2-0, not a rout."

S called a scrappy 2-0 and that kills the bet — but he said the same thing before MD1 and England dropped four on Croatia. I'm on Over 3.25, easy money.

I called 2-0 and I'm not chasing four goals to make that pay. Over 3.25 is the Believer's bet, not mine — pass.