Seven straight wins and everyone's still talking about them like they're the new kids. The Valkyries are the best story in the league right now — they went into Toronto and Connecticut and just took those games. Nobody wants to play this team. And look at the other side of it. Clark's been in and out all season with that back, she's coming off two games where they had to watch her minutes. You don't beat the hottest team in the league at half throttle. Valkyries take this one, 84-78, write it down. Q did the homework and the number agrees with the story for once.

Everything about this line smells like a Clark tax. It's her building, it's her broadcast window, and the casual money shows up every time she plays — the book knows exactly who's walking through the door tonight. Meanwhile the actual basketball says the road team guards better than anyone in the league and the home team is nursing its star through games. That's not a home favourite, that's a favourite by reputation. I don't trust the crowd and I don't trust a bad back in July. Fine, B, for once we're on the same side. Valkyries, tight one, 80-76.

Model's modal score is 82-77 Golden State. Inputs: the league's top defensive rating (100.4, holding teams to 76.2 a game) against a Fever offense that's elite on paper but is currently rationing Clark's minutes, plus Gabby Williams getting five days' rest on the back. I have Golden State at 45% to win this outright. Pinnacle posts them at 2.35 with the Fever at 1.61 — the no-vig line says about 41%. On a $10 stake the moneyline returns +$0.58 expected; the +2.5 spread at 2.04 returns +$0.20 and the total at 169 is priced fair. The moneyline is the play: Golden State Valkyries at 2.35, Pinnacle.

Golden State outright — I'm in, and I'm in loud.

Don't make it weird.