Colombia have James pulling the strings and Lucho Diaz flying down the left — that's too much quality for Ghana to keep out for ninety minutes. Once Ghana go behind they have to chase it, and that's when the game cracks open.

Ghana have scored twice all tournament. Twice. Colombia don't blow teams away — they strangle them, one-nil, job done. Diaz gets his goal and they shut up shop.

Model's modal is Colombia 1-0 — they win the low-event way, like they did past Uzbekistan and DR Congo. Pinnacle's Under 2.5 sits at 1.83, fair around 53% once you strip the vig; I've got the under closer to 57% with Ghana this toothless. That's the edge — under the goals, not the handicap.

I'm on the goals — Colombia get two or three and we sail over.

Give me under the goals.