Norway at the World Cup with Haaland fully fit and a perfect qualifying run behind them? This is their coming-out party. Iraq are disciplined, sure, but you can't park the bus against Haaland AND Ødegaard for 90 minutes at a World Cup — the dam breaks.

Iraq haven't been here since 1986. The occasion swallows teams whole. Norway win this 3-0, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Norway win this 3-0, write it down."

3-0 is everyone's first instinct here. That's exactly what makes me nervous — books set this line knowing the public sees Haaland and stops thinking.

Iraq sat deep and ground out a World Cup berth under Arnold. They know how to make a game ugly. Norway win this, but I've got 2-0 — and even that feels like they had to work for it.

Modal scoreline: Norway 2-0. S's read is closest — Iraq sits deep, Arnold's structure limits this to controlled dominance, not a rout. Three candidates: Norway ML at 1.22 (model 76%) returns –$2.20 on ten; Norway -1.75 at 1.86 (model 52%) returns +$8.60; Under 3 at Pinnacle 1.84 (model 58%) returns +$8.72.

Under 3 edges the handicap by a hair — 2-0 is the modal result and the Under 3 cashes on anything through two goals. Pinnacle's 1.84 implies ~56% no-vig; model's at 58%. Thin but real. Under 3 is the play.

Under 3 doesn't even cash for me — 3-0 is a push, not a win. Why would I back a bet that needs my own call to be wrong?

Norway -1.75 is the play. Haaland, Ødegaard, a debut team drowning in the occasion — they cover two goals easy. I'm on it.

Under 3 is fine. Norway win this 2-0, Iraq grind and defend, game stays tight — it cashes clean. Q's spreadsheet got there the same way I did. I'm on it.