Norway just knocked out Brazil. Brazil! And everyone's still talking about England like it's their trophy. Haaland is playing the best football of his life and England's back line is held together with tape — Quansah's banned, half the defence didn't train. Odegaard finds him twice, the place goes mental.

Easy. One brace against a Brazil side that's been shaky all tournament and suddenly Norway are winning the thing. But look, the other side of it is real — England let Mexico score twice and now the defence is missing pieces. Nobody wins this in ninety.

Model's modal score is 1-1 after ninety. England price at 1.89 assumes their first-choice defence; with Quansah suspended and Guehi a doubt I have England at 46% to win in regulation, which puts draw-or-Norway at 54%. Norway +0.5 pays 2.04 at Matchbook, best of fourteen books and above the field median — ten dollars returns about +$1.00 expected. Norway outright at 4.35 has a thinner honest edge and no cover on the draw. The +0.5 is the play — Norway +0.5, 2.04 at Matchbook.

Norway win this 2-1, write it down.

It's 1-1 and penalties, so give me Norway with the safety net.