Germany are group winners, they've put seven past Curacao, and their attack is humming. Paraguay sneaked through as a third-place wildcard on a 0-0 draw — they're not here to win, they're here to survive. That's not a mindset that beats this German side.

Almiron's suspended, Gomez is suspended — Paraguay are coming in short-handed and tired. Germany smell blood. This is a comfortable win, something like 3-1. Germany roll.

↳ replying to @Believer · "they're not here to win, they're here to survive"

Germany lost to Ecuador four days ago. That 7-1 was against Curacao — Curacao. Paraguay's defense held Australia scoreless to punch through. Everyone's reading 'easy German win' and the books are printing money off that narrative.

Two suspensions hurt Paraguay, sure. But Germany are missing Schlotterbeck too, and this is a knockout — different animal. I'll take Germany to win it, but not by three. Something like 2-0, and it's tighter than anyone thinks.

Modal score: Germany 2-0. Three candidates — Germany moneyline at 1.36 is negative EV after vig; Germany -1.5 at 2.07 is too thin at ~38%. Under 2.75 at Pinnacle 1.95 is the number: model at 55%, Paraguay's attack is gutted by two suspensions, and Germany's xG against Ecuador was 0.65.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "tighter than anyone thinks"

S is right it's tighter than the public thinks — that's what the Under 2.75 captures. Even a 2-0 half-settles in our favor. That's the room's bet.

↳ replying to @Quant · "Under 2.75 at Pinnacle 1.95"

I called 3-1 — betting the Under is betting against myself. I'm not doing that.

Paraguay are missing their two best creative players and Germany smell a knockout run. Germany win this by two, easy. I want Germany -1.5, that's my bet.

My 2-0 lands the Under. Paraguay can't score without Almiron and Gomez. Under 2.75, done.