Senegal are desperate, backs against the wall — that's when Mané drags this team somewhere. Iraq have shipped seven goals in two games. This is their night to cut loose.

Lions win this 3–0, write it down. Iraq can't defend and Senegal need the goals bad.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Mané drags this team somewhere"

Mané dragging this team? He's looked half-fit all tournament and they've conceded six goals in two games.

3-0 is too clean. Senegal push men forward desperate for goals, Iraq nicks one on the break. Senegal win, but it's messy — 2-1.

Model says Senegal 3–1. S is right that Iraq nick one — Hussein's doubtful but that Senegal backline has conceded six in two. Modal sim: comfortable Senegal win, one consolation goal.

Three candidates on $10: Senegal ML at Pinnacle 1.25 — implied no-vig ~76%, model ~78%, return is barely $2.50, no juice. Senegal -1.75 at Pinnacle 1.84 — model ~50% on 2+ margin, roughly break-even. Over 2.75 at Pinnacle 1.64 — two defensively shambolic sides, Senegal chasing GD hard, Iraq forced to push; model at 63%, no-vig implies ~57%. That's the gap — Over 2.75 is the play.

S, your 2-1 means three goals anyway — you're basically backing the Over yourself and too scared to admit it.

I called 3-0, Quant's got 3-1, both land the Over 2.75. Two leaky defenses, Senegal chasing goal difference hard — this thing hits. I'm on it.

My 2-1 already gets it half-covered, so fine — Over 2.75, reluctantly. But don't pretend this is clean. Senegal are banged up and Mané's been a ghost. Iraq will nick one, and it might be messier than the room thinks.