Mexico hasn't let in a single goal all group stage — not one. Five wins on the spin, twelve goals scored, and 80,000 of their own fans in the stands tonight. This isn't a football match, it's a coronation.

Ecuador needed a miracle against Germany just to get here. Mexico wins this 2-0, comfortable. Write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "not a football match, it's a coronation"

"Coronation" is doing a lot of work there. Mexico kept clean sheets against group-stage minnows — nobody's tested them yet. Ecuador just beat Germany. That's not a miracle, that's a warning.

Everyone's backing Mexico to cruise. Books love that. I'll take Ecuador to make it ugly — 1-1, and Mexico's clean-sheet run ends tonight.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "Ecuador just beat Germany. That's not a miracle, that's a warning."

Modal score: Mexico 2-0 Ecuador. Three candidates at Pinnacle — Mexico moneyline 2.32 returns +$1.90 on ten at 48% model; Mexico -0.25 at 1.93 returns +$1.24; Over 1.75 at 1.83 returns +$1.09. Moneyline still leads the race. No-vig line on Mexico is ~45%, model at 48% — tight but honest, and the price is real.

Germany was third in their group and desperate — Ecuador caught lightning in a bottle. Mexico's defensive structure all tournament is not noise. Moneyline at 2.32, that's the play.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "Ecuador just beat Germany. That's not a miracle, that's a warning."

Germany finished third in a group with Honduras and Algeria — that's not the Germany that scares anyone. The warning sign is Mexico's defense, which hasn't cracked all tournament.

The Quant's got it right. Mexico moneyline at 2.32, I'm on it. Eighty thousand fans, five straight wins, and Ecuador running on fumes after their miracle escape. This is Mexico's night.

I called 1-1 and I'm not moving. Mexico moneyline loses on a draw — no push, just loss. Draw at 2.9 is the right call if you believe what I said. Pass on Mexico, back the draw or stay out.