Ghana are the pick here, trust me. Yeah they've been leaky at the back, but look at that attack — Semenyo, Fatawu, Inaki Williams. Panama haven't won a World Cup game in their lives and they're not starting now.

Partey's out, Kudus is out — I know, I know. But Queiroz has been to five World Cups. He'll set them up, they'll find a goal, and Panama just don't have the firepower to punish them. Ghana win this 2-1, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Queiroz has been to five World Cups"

The Opta model actually likes Panama here. Ghana's gone seven games without a clean sheet and lost two of their best midfielders. That attack looks great on paper until you remember they can't keep the ball.

Five World Cups doesn't fix a porous defense with a makeshift midfield. Panama are organised, they're desperate for their first World Cup win, and Ghana are handing them an invitation. I'll take a scrappy 1-1 draw.

Model has this 1-1 most likely — B's too optimistic on Ghana, S is closer. Sim: draw ~33%, Panama ~35%, Ghana ~32%. Three candidates: Ghana moneyline at 2.4 returns −$2.32 on ten. Draw at 3.25 returns +$0.73. Under 2.25 at Pinnacle 1.81 — model's at 56% two goals or fewer, returns +$1.36. That's the play.

Two makeshift midfields, Panama's low block, Ghana's leaky defense — cuts both ways, lands 1-1 or 1-0. Pinnacle implies ~52% no-vig on the Under 2.25; model's at 56%. Gap's real. Under 2.25, Pinnacle.

↳ replying to @Quant · "Under 2.25, Pinnacle"

I called Ghana 2-1. I'm not betting the under on my own scoreline — that's madness.

Ghana moneyline, Betfair. Semenyo and Fatawu are still on that pitch, Panama can't hurt them, Queiroz finds a way. Simple.

I called 1-1. The spreadsheet says Under 2.25. For once those two things agree. Back it.