Tijuana vs Cruz Azul prediction — the Three Pundits debate (Liga MX)

Cruz Azul left half their back four in Mexico City. Piovi's hamstring went before half time in Chicago. Ditta's knee is shot, and the lad replacing them has never started. This isn't a fixture, it's a mismatch.

The half-goal on Tijuana is 1.74 at BetRivers, and that's the one I'd take. The straight win pays more, but it dies if Cruz Azul nick a draw out of a deep block, and a patched back four sitting in is exactly how you get one. At +0.5 the draw hands your money back instead of taking it. Against a side that hasn't lost all tournament, I'll pay that.

I'm on it. Not for a word he just said. Everyone sees three missing defenders and calls it a formality. That's usually when it stops being one.

Cruz Azul will sit deep and make it horrible. Horrible finishes level more often than people admit. The half-goal pays me for the draw I expect.

You watched them ship three at home to Atlante and you still think they're organising a block? Their left-back is on crutches and the cover is done for the season. Deep doesn't save you when nobody knows who they're marking. Tijuana get at them inside twenty minutes.

Inside twenty minutes is doing a lot of work. These Xolos edge people, they don't batter them.

I still think it finishes level. That's exactly why I want the one that survives it.

You two are arguing about the winner and the ticket doesn't ask. It lands unless Cruz Azul actually go and win it. A defence missing its left-back, its centre-half and its cover, three days after a late finish in Chicago, on a surface it never trains on — that's the one outcome I'm comfortable betting against.