Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction — the Three Pundits debate (MLB)

You don't fade Paul Skenes against a guy making his first start back from an arm injury — I don't care what the standings say. Skenes has owned Milwaukee his whole career, and the man across from him is on a leash tonight. The Pirates just need to hang around until the Brewers go to their bullpen early, and they will.

The Pirates are the trap most nights. Bad team. Everyone sees the ace, forgets somebody pitches the eighth. But tonight the trap sits on the other side. The market's paying Milwaukee for winning last night. Behind a starter nobody's seen throw in weeks. I'll hold my nose. Pirates edge it 2-1.

Strip the uniforms off and this is the best arm on the field — who happens to own this exact lineup — against a man on a comeback pitch count, in a game the books themselves expect to be low-scoring. That's a starter's duel, and starter's duels go to the better starter's side. I've got Pittsburgh winning it 3-1. The run line for Pittsburgh pays too little to bother with, and the Milwaukee side is priced like their guy never got hurt. I make the Pirates about a 48% shot and Caesars pays 2.30 on the win. I'll take that all night.

Pirates take it 3-1 — ace does ace things.

Their bullpen blowing it late is the risk we're paid to carry.