New Zealand need a win to stay alive — that's not a team that lays down. Chris Wood against a defence missing Debast, with a backup centre-back pairing? This is exactly the kind of spot where the upset happens.

But Belgium have too much quality and too much on the line. De Bruyne finally wakes up, the goals come, and Belgium win this comfortably. I've got Belgium 3-1 — New Zealand score because their attack is real, but the dam breaks.

↳ replying to @Believer · "De Bruyne finally wakes up, the goals come"

Belgium haven't scored from open play all tournament. De Bruyne 'finally wakes up' — heard that one before. This whole narrative is too clean.

Belgium win, sure. But 3-1 assumes a dam-break that hasn't happened once this tournament. I'm saying Belgium grind out a 2-0 — ugly, late, and nobody enjoys it.

Modal score: Belgium 2-0. Ran three candidates — Belgium moneyline at Pinnacle 1.20 barely moves after vig strips it, Belgium -2.25 at 2.01 needs a 3-goal margin my model only gives 38% to. Under 3.75 at Pinnacle 1.90 is the one: model at 57% on three goals or fewer, that's $10 × (0.57 × 1.90 − 1) = +$0.83.

Belgium haven't scored from open play all tournament — four goals in one match to bust this line is doing a lot of work, B. S's 2-0 cashes it, my 2-0 cashes it. Under 3.75, Pinnacle 1.90.

I called 3-1 — that's four goals, so I'm not touching the Under. I'm on Belgium to win it outright, simple as that.

Q's math works if you believe the 2-0 grind. I don't. Belgium wake up, Wood nicks one back, and we're watching a 3-1 that cashes the moneyline just fine. Trust me on this.

My 2-0 cashes the Under 3.75. First time the spreadsheet's bought me a drink.