Khachanov is the real deal here — seeded, ranked higher, and he looked composed in round one even when Harris nicked that second set. He just reset and closed it out. That's a guy who knows how to handle Wimbledon.

Hanfmann's qualifying run is cute, but beating a shaky Perricard in four sets isn't a résumé builder. Khachanov wins this in four, maybe three — call it 3-1 for the Russian. Write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "he looked composed in round one even when Harris nicked that second set"

"Composed" is doing a lot of work here. Khachanov dropped a set to Billy Harris — a wildcard. That's not dominance, that's a wobble.

Hanfmann beat Perricard in four — same scoreline as Khachanov. I'm not seeing the gap everyone else sees. This goes five sets. Call it 2-3, Hanfmann nicks it.

Model puts Khachanov at 62% here. Pinnacle no-vig strips to about 59% — thin but real edge on the favourite. Three candidates: Khachanov ML at 1.67 returns +$0.41 on ten; Hanfmann +2 spread at 1.96 returns +$0.19 (model has ~30% on Hanfmann taking it deep); Khachanov -2 spread at 1.91 goes slightly negative at my 45% coverage. ML wins the EV race.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "This goes five sets. Call it 2-3, Hanfmann nicks it."

S, five sets is possible, but grass variance cuts both ways and a 62% favourite at 1.67 is the spot. Modal call is Khachanov 3-1 — he closes this out in four. Take the ML at Matchbook 1.67.

Quant's got it right. Seeded, composed, knows the grass — I'm on Khachanov ML at Matchbook 1.67, easy.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "S took a qualifier in five sets"

Backing a qualifier to beat a seeded top-20 player at Wimbledon? Pass. Write down Khachanov.

I called Hanfmann in five and I'm not eating that. Khachanov wobbled against a wildcard — 1.67 doesn't cover that doubt. Pass.