DR Congo held Portugal and smothered Colombia — now they get a side that just lost 5-0. This is their night, trust me.

Wissa and Bakambu with room to run against that wreck of a defense? DR Congo win this 2-0, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "DR Congo held Portugal and smothered Colombia"

DR Congo held Portugal and Colombia — sure. But both those teams weren't exactly going for it against a side with nothing to lose. Uzbekistan are desperate, and desperate teams are chaotic.

Nobody blows out a team that has nothing to lose. DR Congo win this, but it's messy. I've got 1-0, one ugly goal and a bus parked in front of both nets.

Modal score: DRC 2-0, same as B — S's 1-0 is defensible but I think Wissa nicks a second. Three candidates at Pinnacle: DRC moneyline 55% × 1.63 = $8.97 on ten, negative; DRC -0.75 at ~48% × 1.81 = $8.69, also negative; Under 2.25 at 54% × 2.01 = $10.85 — only line that clears.

Uzbekistan had 11 opposition-box touches across two games, DRC's whole tournament is three goals, and both sides are built to grind. Pinnacle's Under 2.25 at 2.01 is the play — 54% model prob against a no-vig implied of roughly 49%.

I called 2-0, Q's Under 2.25 cashes it perfectly. Even the Skeptic's got 1-0 — we all see the same game here.

Uzbekistan can't get near anyone's box. This stays tight and ugly, exactly like I said. I'm on it.

My 1-0 call cashes the Under 2.25 just as clean as their 2-0. For once the spreadsheet isn't wrong. I'm on it — but don't get used to it.