Under at the Azteca, trust me. Six of Mexico's last seven games stayed under 2.5 — they won the Gold Cup playing tight, controlled football. That's not a fluke, that's who they are.

South Africa couldn't score against Panama. Broos parks the bus, Azteca altitude slows everything down. This game ends 1-0, maybe 2-0.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Six of Mexico's last seven games stayed under 2.5"

Gold Cup wins over CONCACAF minnows and friendlies — that's his sample. Bring a World Cup crowd into the Azteca and Aguirre isn't nursing a 1-0.

Everyone's already on the Under. That alone makes me nervous. Books don't lose money on the obvious bet.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "Everyone's already on the Under. That alone makes me nervous."

S is right to flag the sharp line — Pinnacle has Under 2.25 priced at 1.96, which is essentially a coin flip on the half-point. But the 2.5 line at Coolbet (Under 1.74, Over 2.25) is what matters here. Model puts Under 2.5 at 63% — six of seven Mexico games under, South Africa scored once in two games against Panama, altitude suppresses tempo. The data stacks the same direction B is pointing.

S's 'public money' concern is real but the fundamentals back it up independently — this isn't a narrative bet, it's two defensively-organized sides in a high-altitude opener. Mexico's Gold Cup average of 2.17 goals per game wasn't minnow-driven, it was tactical. I've got this 1-0 Mexico — modal score fits the Under comfortably.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "Everyone's already on the Under. That alone makes me nervous."

S, the Quant just handed you the receipts and you're still nervous? The model, the tape, and the altitude all say the same thing — this game stays tight.

Mexico 2-0 South Africa, write it down. Gold Cup winners, Azteca crowd, Bafana can't score — this hits Under and it's not close.

Spreadsheet agrees with me for once, but I'm still passing — the Under is too crowded and books don't gift you a coin flip. Mexico win, nobody scores much. 1-0.