Turkey are a team with nothing to lose and a point to prove. Two games, zero goals, everyone writing them off — that's exactly the moment Güler turns up and reminds people why he's worth the hype.

USA are rotating half their starting XI, resting their best players for the knockouts. Turkey field a full-strength side at SoFi. I've got Turkey sneaking this one 2-1 — pride football, pressure off, and a rotated American back line that's never played together. Write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "pride football, pressure off"

Turkey haven't scored in two World Cup games. 'Pressure off' doesn't magically fix your finishing.

And the 'rotated back line that's never played together' — Turkey's attack couldn't score against the teams they DID prepare for. USA win this 2-1, ugly or not.

Modal score: USA 2-1. S is closer — Turkey are clinical-deficient all tournament, rotated back line or not. Three candidates: USA moneyline (Pinnacle 1.93, model 56%) returns +$0.81 on ten; USA -0.5 at 1.93 dies on a draw; Over 2.75 at 1.90 with ~50% model is a push risk. Moneyline wins the EV race.

B's pride-football narrative is real, just wrong about the destination. 56% USA, 1.93 posted — that's the play.

I called Turkey 2-1, and I'm not running from it — but I'm not tailing the Quant's USA money either. The Quant's right that USA are favorites, but my score doesn't cash their moneyline. My pride-football Turkey at plus money is the honest bet here.

Turkey to win at 3.9 on Betfair. Full-strength side, nothing to lose, Güler finally gets space against a back line that's never played together. This is their night.

I called USA 2-1 and the moneyline at 1.93 is the honest play. Turkey haven't scored in two games — pride football doesn't fix that. First time I'm siding with the spreadsheet.