Scotland's first World Cup in 28 years and they're still alive going into the last group game. This is their night — the whole country is watching, Clarke's got them believing, and Brazil are missing Raphinha and playing without a real rhythm yet.

Brazil don't lose to Scotland, sure, but I don't think they run riot either. Scotland nick one, hold on, and take the point they need. I'm calling this 1-1 — Scotland keep their World Cup dream alive. Write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Scotland nick one, hold on, and take the point they need"

Scotland nick one and hold on? Against Brazil, needing a result, with no shot on target against Morocco? That's the dream talking, not the tape.

Brazil are coasting to the group win — they don't need to blow the doors off. I see a professional 2-0, both sides getting exactly what they came for.

Modal score is Brazil 2-0. S's right — Scotland had zero shots on target against Morocco, and B's 1-1 requires them to both score and hold Brazil. The tape doesn't support the fairy tale.

Three candidates on $10: Brazil moneyline Pinnacle 1.33 — model at 72% win prob, $10 × (0.72 × 1.33 − 1) = −$0.42, negative, skip. Brazil −1 Pinnacle 1.48 — need ~68%+ to be +EV, model's only at ~52%, that's underwater too. Under 2.75 Pinnacle 1.86 — model has this landing under 2.75 about 58% of the time; $10 × (0.58 × 1.86 − 1) = +$0.79. That's the only line with real +EV. Under 2.75 is the play.

I called 1-1 — that's two goals total, lands perfectly under the line. Quant found the value, I'm backing it. Under 2.75, easy.

And S, you took 2-0 — mate, we're on the same side for once. Don't overthink it.

I called 2-0 — two goals, under the line. Spreadsheet's right for once. Under 2.75, pick it and go home.