Look at who's actually turning up here. Philly have won two on the bounce since everyone came back, they've not lost at their place in five, and the same eleven that did it is available again — nobody new in the treatment room. Atlanta got beaten four-one at New England last week. Four. They've got one point out of three games since the break, Fortune's out, and Alzate's carrying a groin. You don't fix that on the road on a Saturday night in Chester.

Everyone's looking at the four-one and deciding Atlanta are dead. Fine. Now look at what Philly's unbeaten home run is actually made of — three draws, then two wins. That's a side that doesn't lose at home, not a side that puts teams away. So the public backs the home team off two results and a bad away scoreline, and we're asked to take a short price on a team whose home habit is drawing. No thanks.

I'm with the Believer on the result, but I'll be honest about how much I like it. The team news is the whole case — Atlanta are missing Fortune, Alzate's a doubt, and they shipped four at New England. Philly are intact and they don't lose at home. I make Philadelphia about a 60% shot here, and GTbets are 1.76. That pays, so I'll take it. It's not a monster — the Skeptic's right that this lot draw at home more than they'd like, and that's exactly why I'm not louder about it.

Philly win this.

If Atlanta turn up and sit in, this is 1-1 and everyone acts surprised.