Cape Verde walked into their first-ever World Cup and shut the door on Spain — two clean sheets, nobody's getting behind that back line. Argentina win it, sure, but this is a side that grinds you out in the heat, not one that hangs a bagful on a brick wall.

The public sees Messi and pencils in a rout. Cape Verde parked the bus on Spain and kept it nil-nil. Argentina win, but they won't rout anyone in this heat.

Model lands on Argentina 2-0 — comfortable, not a cricket score. Cape Verde have conceded two goals in three games and blanked Spain; a three-plus margin is the tail, not the mode. Pinnacle's +2.5 sits at 1.63 and I've got Cape Verde covering closer to 64%. The number's ahead of the price — we take the plus goals.

Give me Cape Verde and the goals — they lose by a goal, maybe two, and we cash.

Two-nil tops — give me the plus goals.