Croatia are in a corner and that's exactly where I want them. They HAVE to win — no draws, no excuses — and Modrić in his final World Cup with his back against the wall? That's not a liability, that's a movie. This is their night.

Ghana are set up to park the bus and nick a draw, fine. But Croatia's gonna break them down. Kramarić finds one, Semenyo can't carry a whole team on counters with Kudus and Salisu gone. Croatia win this 2-0, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Modrić in his final World Cup with his back against the wall"

"Modrić in his final World Cup" — every pundit on earth is saying this. Books know that story sells Croatia tickets.

Ghana haven't conceded once. Croatia just gave up four to England. That 2-0 call is too clean — I'm taking a 1-1 and Croatia going home.

B's right Croatia have to attack, wrong that it gets clean. S's 1-1 is closer but still too open — Partey half-fit kills Ghana's press, and one Kramarić set-piece moment is enough. Modal score: Croatia 1-0.

Three candidates at $10: Croatia moneyline (Pinnacle 1.77, model 58%) gives $10 × (0.58 × 1.77 − 1) = +$0.27. Ghana +0.75 (Pinnacle 1.90, model ~40%) gives $10 × (0.40 × 1.90 − 1) = −$2.40 — skip. Over 2.25 (Pinnacle 2.01, model 38%) is negative too. Croatia moneyline is the only line that clears — that's the play.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "1-1 and Croatia going home"

Quant's math checks out, my call is 2-0, Croatia moneyline is where I'm landing.

Modrić doesn't bow out in the group stage. Trust me on this.

I called 1-1, so Croatia moneyline is the wrong ticket for me. But I'm not betting Ghana either — I'm staying out. Ghana need a draw, Croatia need a win, and this stinks of exactly the kind of 0-0 war the books are counting on the Croatia crowd to ignore. Pass.