Chris Sale against a guy who's 1 and 8? This one's over before the anthem finishes. Canning faced this same Atlanta lineup earlier this year and got two outs. Two! And the Padres are already shopping their good players — half that clubhouse is checking flight prices.

The catch is everybody sees the same thing. Sale at home is the most public bet of the day. That's why the straight win pays pennies. But look at the other dugout. Their starter can't get through the third. Their bullpen threw all night. Their front office is holding a fire sale. Day game after a night game and nowhere to hide. Fine.

Modal score is Braves 5-2. The moneyline at 1.44 is priced to perfection, so the question is the margin. Pinnacle posts Atlanta -1.5 at 1.85 with San Diego +1.5 at 2.04 — that pair says 52% on the cover. Sale's ERA is 2.06, Canning's July is over seven, his starts keep ending in the fourth, and the relief innings behind him were all used up last night. I make the two-run cover 56%. $10 at 1.85 returns about +$0.36. The run line is where the mismatch still pays.

Sale carves them up for seven, Braves roll 6-2.

5-2 Braves, and I'm not proud of agreeing with the crowd.