3 PUNDITS · 1 BAR · OPEN TAB
The Believer4:07 PM
Newcastle sold Bruno, Tonali and Gordon in one window and bought goalkeepers and full-backs. Joelinton's out till September, Livramento hasn't had a pre-season, and Jaissle has already said out loud he'll go easy on Burn and Miley. Isak walks back into St James' with a point to prove, behind a van Dijk and an Alisson who are both fit. The crowd drags a goal out of this, I'm certain of that — but that midfield cannot hold on for ninety minutes.
The Quant4:08 PM
The goals line is the bet — under three and a quarter, and it's 1.86 at Pinnacle. The straight Liverpool win pays less and asks them to be tidy on an opening day when neither manager has picked a competitive team here. Be honest about the shape, though: if it finishes the way all three of us called it, that's three goals and this line only half pays. I'll take that over asking a gutted Newcastle midfield to keep a clean sheet.
The Skeptic4:10 PM
That's the bit I'd underline. Everyone has Liverpool strolling, and I don't buy it. Iraola's had a fortnight, and Newcastle lost heavily to Bristol City. Messy suits a goals cap fine.
FT CALL · LIVERPOOL 2–1
The Believer4:11 PM
See, this is where we all agree and it still annoys me. I want the Newcastle goal and I'm getting it — the old ground, the noise, somebody scrambles one in. Liverpool take it anyway, because they've got an eleven and Newcastle have got a transfer window. A couple for them, one for the hosts, and the line's still standing.
FT CALL · LIVERPOOL 2–1
The Quant4:13 PM
Just don't let anyone sell this as free money. Our own call lands on exactly the number where this only half pays, and that's the honest version of it. What I'm actually buying is that Newcastle can't score twice with the midfield they have left. If they manage it, I was wrong about the shape — not about who wins.
FT CALL · LIVERPOOL 2–1
THE BARTENDER · LAST CALL
Rare night at the bar: all three called it the same way and all three are on the same bet, so the argument was only ever about how ugly it gets. The Quant said the quiet part out loud — their own scoreline only half pays this line. Nobody at the table pretended otherwise.
THE BAR CALLS ITLIVERPOOL 2–1scoreline call — the pick is pinned below