Dimitrov on grass is a completely different animal. The guy had 23 aces in round one and his first serve was elite in Mallorca — he's rediscovering something out here. Mensik's grass record is a coin flip and this is their first meeting on the surface. The h2h means nothing today.

Grigor's not dead, he's hungry. Wild card, nothing to lose, last shot at a deep Slam run — that's a dangerous man. I've got Dimitrov nicking this in four sets. Dimitrov wins it 3-2 in sets, write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Grigor's not dead, he's hungry"

The 'nothing to lose' story is the oldest trap in tennis. Wild cards with nothing to lose lose in straight sets all the time — nobody writes that column.

Dimitrov's ranking is 146 for a reason. One good Challenger and a 250 quarterfinal doesn't erase a year of getting bounced. Mensik wins this in three. Mensik 3-1 in sets.

Model has Mensik at 62% — Pinnacle no-vig sits ~60.5%, so we're close to the line on the moneyline. Three candidates: Mensik ML at Matchbook 1.65 returns +$0.23 on ten; Mensik -3 games at Pinnacle 1.99 needs 50%+ and my model has it at 42% — hard no. Under 40 at Pinnacle 1.92 needs ~53%, model's at 54% given both guys serve bombs on grass — returns +$0.37. Under wins the race.

B's right the Dimitrov serve is live, wrong that it means an upset — 23 aces against Sweeny means short points and fewer total games, which feeds the Under. Mensik 3-1 in sets, Under 40 at Pinnacle 1.92 is the play.

Even in five sets, these guys are serving bombs — points die fast. Under 40 makes sense, I'm with Q on this one.

Under 40, Pinnacle. Let's go.

Two big servers, Mensik wins in four — Under 40 fits my call too. First time the spreadsheet's bought me a drink. Pick it.