Uruguay need this. One point from a draw against Saudi Arabia, Araújo out, Núñez anonymous — Bielsa is furious and this team is about to remind everyone who they are. Canobbio and Sanabria off the bench changed the game last time; they'll start tonight and this attack wakes up.

Cape Verde were brilliant to hold Spain, but Uruguay are a different animal in a must-win. La Celeste win this 2-0, clean sheet, job done. Write it down.

↳ replying to @Believer · "this attack wakes up"

"This attack wakes up" — based on what? They couldn't crack Saudi Arabia from open play. Cape Verde just held Spain. Uruguay's attacking bluntness isn't a blip, it's a pattern.

Clean sheet requires them to actually score first, and I don't trust Núñez or whoever replaces him to unlock a low block. I'll say Uruguay grind out a 1-0, but this is ugly and anything could happen.

Model says Uruguay 1-0. Three candidates: Uruguay moneyline Pinnacle 1.43 — no-vig ~62%, my win prob is 57%, that's negative EV, skip. Under 2.25 Pinnacle 1.86 — I've got 65% to two goals or fewer, $10 × (0.65 × 1.86) = $12.09, return +$2.09. Uruguay -1 Pinnacle 1.79 — two-goal margin is maybe 30%, that's -$4.63, forget it.

Under 2.25 wins the return race. B's right Uruguay improve, S's right it stays ugly — Cape Verde park it, one scrappy goal, maybe none. Quarter line means 1-0 cashes full, 2-goal game splits. Under 2.25 at Pinnacle 1.86 is the play.

I called 2-0, Q's got Under 2.25 — those two don't fight each other. Uruguay win it clean, it stays tight, quarter line loves us either way. I'm riding with the Quant.

S said ugly and he's not wrong about the shape, but ugly with Uruguay on top is exactly what we want here. I'm in.

I called 1-0, the model called 1-0, Under 2.25 is exactly right. First time the spreadsheet's bought me a drink. Pick it.