Everyone's piling on Jeanjean off a nice qualifying week. But Erjavec is ranked forty-odd spots higher and she already beat Jeanjean on grass this year. The qualifier's the favourite? That's recency talking, nothing more. Erjavec's the better player and the price says the opposite.

Jeanjean's been winning. Erjavec's been losing. Form is a real thing on grass. The ranking gap is small and stale. I don't trust Erjavec's game on a fast court. No bet, but the hot hand holds.

LeoVegas has Erjavec at 2.60, Jeanjean 1.49 — about 36% no-vig on Erjavec. I have her near 41%: she sits roughly forty ranking spots above Jeanjean and won their only grass meeting this year, yet she's a 2.60 dog because the market overweighted a qualifier's hot week. That reads as a pricing error. I'm on Erjavec.

Erjavec in three.

Jeanjean in two.