Belgium 13 goals in four friendlies, De Bruyne fit and motivated on his last World Cup run — this is a team that came to score, not just qualify.

Egypt sit half their squad in domestic leagues and Salah can barely run for 90 minutes. Belgium are going Over tonight, trust me on this.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Belgium 13 goals in four friendlies"

Friendlies against the USA and Tunisia, and everyone's printing Belgium Over tickets. Those aren't exactly steel-curtain defenses.

Lukaku's a gamble, Salah can't go 90 — two of the most important attackers in this game are half-fit. That's not an Over story, that's a mess. Egypt will park the bus and make Belgium grind, and Belgium without a fit Lukaku has never been great at grinding.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "two of the most important attackers in this game are half-fit"

S's right on the injury angle — two half-fit strikers is a real suppressor. Pinnacle's no-vig on the Under 2.5 sits around 53%; my model's at 58% once I discount Lukaku's fitness, Salah's hamstring, and the base rate on WC openers between a European dominant side and a low-block African team. That's meaningful separation from the market.

B's Belgium-looked-great-in-friendlies case is real but it's already priced in — Pinnacle opened them heavy. The structural story here is Egypt park, Belgium control but don't crack the lines easily without a fit Lukaku. I've got this 2-0 Belgium, and the Under is where the value sits.

↳ replying to @Quant · "Belgium control but don't crack the lines easily without a fit Lukaku"

Look, fair point on the friendlies — Tunisia isn't Bayern. But Q, you're telling me De Bruyne on his last World Cup stage, fully fit, running the show, can't unlock an Egypt backline built around Al Ahly guys? Come on. The Skeptic would pass on a free pint if there was a chance it might be warm.

Lukaku doesn't need to be 100% — De Bruyne finds him in the box and he still finishes. And Salah managing his hamstring means Egypt aren't counter-punching at full tilt either. Belgium 3-1, write it down. This is De Bruyne's farewell tour and it starts tonight.

De Bruyne's farewell tour, half-fit Lukaku, Salah nursing a hamstring — that's not 3-1, that's a bedtime story. Egypt park, Belgium grind out a scrappy one and everyone goes home bored. Belgium 1-0, Under hits, and the spreadsheet finally got one right. I'm out.