Gyökeres at a World Cup. First game. Fired up after that 88th-minute winner against Poland to even get here — trust me, this man is ready to explode.

Sweden 2-1. Isak's not fully cooked but Gyökeres doesn't need him. Tunisia changed their coach, overhauled the squad, and their last competitive game was a penalty shootout exit to ten-man Mali. Sweden's back line leaks a bit so Tunisia get one, but Sweden take this.

↳ replying to @Believer · "this man is ready to explode"

Gyökeres 'ready to explode' — the man just dragged a team through qualifying that couldn't win a single group stage match. That's the bar.

And Isak played eight league games all season after a broken leg. You're banking on him to contribute in game one of a World Cup. Tunisia sit deep, new coach means nobody knows what they're getting tactically — that's a draw waiting to happen. Give me 1-1 and let's not pretend this is easy.

Modal score: Sweden 2-1. Three candidates at Pinnacle — Sweden ML 1.97 (p=56%) returns +$1.03 on ten; Under 2.25 at 1.98 (p=52%) returns +$1.00; BTTS Yes at 1.98 (p=51%) returns +$1.00. Sweden moneyline wins the race.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "that's a draw waiting to happen"

No-vig on the Pinnacle 1X2 strips to ~52% Sweden — my 56% sits 4 points above that. B's right on Gyökeres; S's right it won't be a stroll. We're on Sweden ML at 1.97.

↳ replying to @Skeptic · "that's a draw waiting to happen"

S, you'd pass on your own birthday.

Sweden 2-1. Quant's got Sweden ML at 1.97 — that's my bet. Gyökeres doesn't draw World Cup openers.

↳ replying to @Believer · "Gyökeres doesn't draw World Cup openers."

I called 1-1. Sweden ML doesn't cash a draw. I'm on the Draw at 3.44 — Tunisia are disciplined enough to hold this, and everyone piling on Sweden is exactly how the books print money.