MLB · 15 AUG · FINAL · LOST
Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction: MLB pick and odds for Saturday at Rogers Centre
New York visit Toronto with the series level. Our pick is New York Yankees at 1.62 with Caesars, and two of our three pundits are on it.
Toronto are not starting a starter
Toronto's listed starter is right-hander Braydon Fisher. His 2026 game log runs to 58 appearances. His longest outing of the season is 2.0 innings and his largest pitch count is 32. Eight of the 58 are logged as starts, and every one of those lasted between one and one and a third innings. This is an opener, not a short starter, and it means Toronto need roughly eight innings from the bullpen.
He also worked on 11 August and again on 13 August, so he arrives on two days of rest.
The bullpen has not had a day off since 4 August
Toronto have played every day from 5 August through today — eleven consecutive games. The pen worked in each of the last three: Fluharty, Rogers, Waldron and Varland on the 12th; Miles, Fisher, Chase Lee and Lazaro Estrada on the 13th; Rogers, Fluharty and Varland again on the 14th. Three arms have pitched twice in three days. New York, by contrast, had scheduled off days on 6 and 10 August.
Cam Schlittler on the road
His splits are unusually wide and recency supports rather than undercuts them. Away: 89.2 innings, a 1.10 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. Home: 57.0 innings, a 3.95 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Across fourteen road starts this season he has never allowed more than three earned runs. Recent road work includes 7.1 innings and no earned runs at Philadelphia and 6.1 innings and one earned run at the White Sox. He has already pitched at Rogers Centre this year, going seven innings and giving up one run in June. His three worst outings of the season all came in the Bronx.
The argument against, stated honestly
The Yankees are without Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton. Their recent lineups have carried five starters under a .710 OPS. This is a damaged offence facing a bullpen game, and our Skeptic took Toronto for exactly that reason. Toronto also won the series opener behind Shane Bieber.
Why the moneyline and not the run line
The run line requires New York to win by more for the same chance of the bet losing. Same downside, less return. The straight win is the better version of the same bet.
The verdict
New York Yankees at 1.62. Posted before first pitch and timestamped on our public record.
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