Tsitsipas vs Auger-Aliassime prediction: Cincinnati Masters pick and odds

Stefanos Tsitsipas meets Felix Auger-Aliassime at the Cincinnati Masters. Our pick is Tsitsipas at 2.25 with Caesars.

The layoff, with dates

Auger-Aliassime's last competitive match was his Wimbledon quarter-final on 7 July. He then withdrew from the National Bank Open in Montreal on 5 August, citing a back injury — reported by the ATP Tour and corroborated by TSN, CTV and Sportsnet.

That puts him at roughly forty days without a competitive match walking into this one. The draw gives him no first-round fixture either, so there is no tune-up in which to find range, timing or match rhythm before a Masters-level opponent.

What we can and cannot confirm

We can confirm the layoff and the withdrawal. We cannot confirm his current fitness — there has been no public update since 5 August, and he has not withdrawn from this event. The briefing behind this pick asserts the layoff, not an ongoing injury, and our Skeptic dissented on exactly that basis.

Why this clears our tennis bar

Tennis prices are sharp and we pass the overwhelming majority of them. Our standing rule is that we publish structural or physical mispricings and leave recency-form favourites alone. A forty-day layoff with no tune-up, on a player the market still installs as favourite, is a physical and structural argument rather than a form one.

The case against

Tsitsipas has been inconsistent and is capable of losing to anyone on a given afternoon. The back problem is unconfirmed and may be entirely resolved. Auger-Aliassime is the better player on current ranking. This is a reasoned play at a price, not a lock.

The verdict

Tsitsipas at 2.25. Two of our three pundits are on it, the dissent is published alongside, and the pick was posted before the first ball and timestamped on our public record.

Read the full bar debate →

---

18+ · bet responsibly.