Corinthians vs Rosario Central Prediction: Copa Libertadores Round of 16 Second Leg Pick

Corinthians host Rosario Central at the Neo Quimica Arena in Sao Paulo with the round of 16 tie completely level. The first leg finished goalless at the Gigante de Arroyito, and there is no away goals rule in this competition, so ninety minutes of stalemate here means extra time and then penalties. Our pick is Rosario Central +0.25 at 2.21 with Pinnacle, and all three pundits are on it.

The matchup: a level tie and a depleted home side

The first leg told you something about both teams. Corinthians played a stretch of it with ten men after Allan was sent off for a second yellow, and still kept the clean sheet. Rosario Central could not break them down with the extra man.

Tonight the arithmetic of the tie forces Corinthians forward, and they arrive to do it short-handed. Allan serves an automatic suspension for that red card. Yuri Alberto, the first-choice striker, is out injured. Memphis Depay, signed to be the other option in that attack, has left the club after his contract was not renewed. Andre is out with a thigh injury, and Labyad, Kayke, Vitinho, Alex Santana and Andre Luiz are all unavailable. Pedro Raul leads the line because there is nobody else to do it.

Rosario Central, by contrast, name the eleven they wanted. Their only absentee is Juan Gimenez, still recovering from the knee ligament injury he suffered a year ago — a gap the side has long been built without. Angel Di Maria starts.

The Believer's case

"No first-choice striker, no replacement striker, and no Allan in midfield. Central turned up here with Di Maria and a plan." He calls it an away win, and reckons the quarter goal never comes into it.

The Skeptic's case

He is on the same bet and thinks the Believer has the wrong reason for it. "Central did not travel here to win it. They came to survive the ninety minutes and take their chances later." His own call is that nobody scores and the tie crawls to penalties.

The number

The Quant gives it about a 60% shot at 2.21. He was offered a bigger cushion at a shorter price and turned it down, and his reasoning is the whole point of the bet: both versions lose in exactly the same place, which is Corinthians actually winning the match. When two spellings of one bet die on the same result, you take the one that pays more for it.

The verdict

Rosario Central +0.25 @ 2.21 (Pinnacle). It survives a Rosario win and it survives a draw. It loses only if a Corinthians attack missing its first two centre-forwards finds a way to win a knockout tie.

That is not a certainty and we are not selling it as one. One goal from Pedro Raul and this is wrong. What we will do is stand behind the reasoning: the pick was posted before kickoff, timestamped, and it stays on the public record whichever way it lands.

Read the full bar argument and check the timestamp

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